(written May 8)
Henry Kissinger had a maxim: “The conventional army loses if it does not win; the guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” I’ll modify it slightly: Great powers in a conflict lose by not winning; lesser powers and insurgencies win by not losing.
Trump’s war of choice, one that he and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel started, has: (1) caused Iran to successfully close the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war and would be open now if Trump had not chosen this war; (2) revealed Trump’s arrogance in that he ignored military advice that Iran would do exactly that; (3) killed the 86-year-old-Khamenei, but installed his son, presumed to be an even more militant leader; (4) caused the deaths, so far, of nine Americans; (5) dramatically upset world oil prices; (6) caused gas prices in my city of Hattiesburg to leap from $2.29 the day before the war to $3.89 today, seven weeks later; (7) saddled Americans and the world with higher prices for everything that is transported by truck, train, or plane using fossil fuels; (8) initiated a disturbing depletion of American Tomahawk missiles and other war materiel; (9) cost America a minimum of $27 billion according to the pentagon as of several days ago; (10) delighted Vladimir Putin as American attention and war assistance are diverted away from Ukraine; (11) strengthened China’s hand for the same reason, potentially encouraging its takeover of Taiwan; (12) delighted Putin further given the increased polarization of Americans; (13) reduced American sanctions on Russian oil and thereby increased income to Russia by approximately $150 million per day; (14) offended even further our allies who were never consulted about the war and were then insulted by Trump as cowards for not taking the lead in opening the Strait—an extremely challenging task in any event; (15) increased the likelihood that Iran will in fact now move forward to develop nuclear bomb capability, an outcome the previous ayatollah had resisted; (16) further blackened America’s international prestige as an ally and as a nation with sane leadership; (17) given our adversaries Russia and China a very good look at our military capabilities and limitations; (18) taught Iran that it has a different kind of nuclear weapon—permanently controlling the Strait and charging tolls for ships to pass through it for the foreseeable future; (19) killed or made homeless untold numbers of innocent Iranians who may have hated the theocracy but at least still had a home and their lives, and now may have an even worse leadership, with no end in sight.
And all for what? I cannot think of a single, not one, upside to this war. On virtually every single measure we as a nation and the world at large are worse off, with no counter-balancing benefit. The objectives of the war (other than the primary one of making Trump look strong and tough and etching his name gloriously in the history books) were to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, to effect regime change and liberate the Iranian people, to acquire its nuclear material, and to degrade its conventional military capability and its ability to further support Hamas and Hezbollah, thus undermining its goal of destroying our partner in the war, Israel. The last of these has been partially achieved; the others not at all. Worse, since the war started, a new objective has emerged, one that did not exist prior to the war, and one that makes the others secondary: opening the Strait of Hormuz.
War is notorious for defying predictions (especially about how short they will be). Perhaps that counter-balancing benefit will emerge. But at least right now it’s hard to see any positive outcome of this war. It seems to fit Kissinger’s maxim quite well.
John Rachal's Blog
Kissinger’s Maxim
June 5, 2026 at 3:19 pm (Political Commentary)
(written May 8)
Henry Kissinger had a maxim: “The conventional army loses if it does not win; the guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” I’ll modify it slightly: Great powers in a conflict lose by not winning; lesser powers and insurgencies win by not losing.
Trump’s war of choice, one that he and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel started, has: (1) caused Iran to successfully close the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war and would be open now if Trump had not chosen this war; (2) revealed Trump’s arrogance in that he ignored military advice that Iran would do exactly that; (3) killed the 86-year-old-Khamenei, but installed his son, presumed to be an even more militant leader; (4) caused the deaths, so far, of nine Americans; (5) dramatically upset world oil prices; (6) caused gas prices in my city of Hattiesburg to leap from $2.29 the day before the war to $3.89 today, seven weeks later; (7) saddled Americans and the world with higher prices for everything that is transported by truck, train, or plane using fossil fuels; (8) initiated a disturbing depletion of American Tomahawk missiles and other war materiel; (9) cost America a minimum of $27 billion according to the pentagon as of several days ago; (10) delighted Vladimir Putin as American attention and war assistance are diverted away from Ukraine; (11) strengthened China’s hand for the same reason, potentially encouraging its takeover of Taiwan; (12) delighted Putin further given the increased polarization of Americans; (13) reduced American sanctions on Russian oil and thereby increased income to Russia by approximately $150 million per day; (14) offended even further our allies who were never consulted about the war and were then insulted by Trump as cowards for not taking the lead in opening the Strait—an extremely challenging task in any event; (15) increased the likelihood that Iran will in fact now move forward to develop nuclear bomb capability, an outcome the previous ayatollah had resisted; (16) further blackened America’s international prestige as an ally and as a nation with sane leadership; (17) given our adversaries Russia and China a very good look at our military capabilities and limitations; (18) taught Iran that it has a different kind of nuclear weapon—permanently controlling the Strait and charging tolls for ships to pass through it for the foreseeable future; (19) killed or made homeless untold numbers of innocent Iranians who may have hated the theocracy but at least still had a home and their lives, and now may have an even worse leadership, with no end in sight.
And all for what? I cannot think of a single, not one, upside to this war. On virtually every single measure we as a nation and the world at large are worse off, with no counter-balancing benefit. The objectives of the war (other than the primary one of making Trump look strong and tough and etching his name gloriously in the history books) were to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, to effect regime change and liberate the Iranian people, to acquire its nuclear material, and to degrade its conventional military capability and its ability to further support Hamas and Hezbollah, thus undermining its goal of destroying our partner in the war, Israel. The last of these has been partially achieved; the others not at all. Worse, since the war started, a new objective has emerged, one that did not exist prior to the war, and one that makes the others secondary: opening the Strait of Hormuz.
War is notorious for defying predictions (especially about how short they will be). Perhaps that counter-balancing benefit will emerge. But at least right now it’s hard to see any positive outcome of this war. It seems to fit Kissinger’s maxim quite well.
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