We have entrusted the nation to a geriatric Nero who grins as the institutions he has set alight burn. I cannot think of a single area of the political, economic, military, national security, religious, educational, judicial, journalistic, or social landscape of American life that will be improved after another Trump term. I believe that every single major aspect of the America we have known, despite its many failures to achieve a more perfect union, will suffer under the presidency of a man who is a cruel, brutish demagogue focused on retribution against his perceived enemies, achieving near dictatorial power, basking in the adoration of his admirers, and enhancing his own personal wealth.
Healthcare? Medicare and Medicaid will be attacked and probably trimmed or even turned over to private entities, while RFK—totally unqualified—will undermine vaccines and medical research and spread his ignorance; meanwhile Trump has already withdrawn from the World Health Organization, calling it a “rip off.”
Education? Higher education is already being threatened as too “woke,” while k-12 will see further right-wing Christian-izing, taxpayer funds will increasingly flow to private schools, and curricula seen as “woke” (learning about slavery, e.g.) will be shunted to the sidelines and book-banning will increase. Research grants will be increasingly subject to Trump’s political correctness while others, including medical research, dry up altogether. Trump has also promised to eliminate an entire cabinet department: Education.
The economy? No. Income inequality will be greater; second-term Trump tax cuts will benefit primarily the wealthy and corporations. Tariffs will provoke counter-tariffs, destabilizing international trade (as they did with the catastrophic Smoot-Hawley bill in 1930). With his 25% tariffs on our friends Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, coupled with planned deportations of immigrants who pick our crops, build our homes, and clean our hotels, the average American family will see inflation rise and higher prices, potentially hitting $2000 per year. Another four trillion will be added to the national debt, approaching $40 trillion—this from the man who promised in 2016 to eliminate the debt after two terms.
Race, ethnicity, and gender issues? Obviously not. Trump’s recent anti-DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) moves, even including blaming a recent collision of a military helicopter and commercial jet resulting in 67 deaths, on DEI, and his press secretary’s defense of that as “common sense” and her allusion to people of a different skin color in that defense make clear the White House view. As for gender-related matters, Trump, Vance, and Musk have all made their misogyny clear (Musk: “A Republic of high status males is best for decision-making”).
The military? With Hesgeth confirmed as Secretary of Defense, and even three Republican senators (Collins, Murkowski, and McConnell) voting against him requiring VP Vance to break a senate 50-50 tie, the military will be weakened while China outpaces the U.S. technologically. Besides Hesgeth’s alcoholic and sexual escapades, he has no managerial experience. His only qualification is being a Trump toady. Trump’s threats to NATO could be effective in pushing all NATO countries to pay at least 2% of their GDP for national defense, but he could endanger NATO itself, and be perfectly willing to abandon a threatened NATO member he doesn’t like. The country will become more authoritarian, and a complacent Republican congress will let it happen. Seeing Trump’s isolationism and his affection for other authoritarians, China will be sorely tempted to take Taiwan, knowing that Trump will do nothing about it. American arms will cease to flow to Ukraine, and Putin, not satisfied to gobble up the 20% of Ukraine he already has, will continue his war until Ukraine is devoured.
International relations? America’s standing in the democratic world will inevitably suffer, as American democracy itself, even the Constitution, will increasingly come under internal attack, as birthright citizenship in the 14th amendment already has. American isolationism will further erode democracy worldwide and tempt China, Russia, and possibly others to further crack down internally and rattle their sabers externally. Trump’s world view that international agreements are a winners and losers game rather than a mutually beneficial outcome will alienate allies and make America less secure, as David Frum has pointed out. Meanwhile the government’s hard turn to authoritarianism will follow the Project 2025 playbook, with Victor Orban’s Hungary as a model.
Law enforcement? A less prosperous economy will increase street crime while white collar crime among the political class will be given free rein. Trump is already purging the FBI of agents, potentially thousands, who had anything to do with investigations of him as well as those who raided Mar-a-Lago in search of documents including top secret ones that he had stolen. The Trump rule will echo that attributed to Peruvian strongman Oscar Benavides: “For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.” If Kash Patel becomes FBI director, whatever is left of the FBI will become the American equivalent of the Spanish Inquisition.
Corruption at the highest levels? No doubt at all—the man who claimed to drain the swamp will bring corruption to levels not seen since the Gilded Age of the 19th century, with his own corruption worse than any previous president. Trump has already illegally fired in his first week seventeen Inspectors General, who investigate government ethics violations, mismanagement, fraud, and corruption in his undisguised plan to eliminate any independent investigation into his business and actions. Elon Musk’s businesses will invite major conflict-of-interest situations, another area IGs investigate. Federal judges such as Aileen Cannon will lean away from the law and toward Trump and his agenda. The corruption will not just be of the rewarding-friends-and-punishing-enemies type. The presidency itself, as it did in Trump’s first term, will become Trump’s personal money-making and power-grabbing machine.
Religion? Fissures in Jefferson’s wall of separation between church and state will widen; Christian nationalism will prosper and insert itself further into government, while divorcing itself completely from the central teachings of Jesus; attacks on Muslims and Jews will increase. A majority of evangelicals and Trump himself will continue to pretend to adhere to Christian values, despite calling Episcopal Bishop Mariann Budde—who implored him at the inaugural prayer service to show compassion and mercy to fearful marginalized groups including gays and immigrants—a “so-called bishop” and demanding her apology for her “inappropriate comments,” as if saying what Jesus would have said was inappropriate and offensive.
Political division? Much worse. We will continue to be, as we already are, a house divided. But finding middle ground will become even more difficult. Republicans cannot even agree whether Russia is friend or foe; likely Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who will be in charge of all American intelligence matters, has defended Putin and coddled former Syrian President and mass murderer Bashar al-Assad. Collegiality in congress, especially the House, will further evaporate, and more votes will strictly follow the party line. Friends and families will continue to divide along lines of those who support the Trumpian strongman vision and those who recognize it for the counterfeit of American values that it is. The nation will move closer and closer to oligarchy and plutocracy.
Truth itself? Trump’s daily lies will continue, and we will be numb to them; Fox News will continue to spew its far right propaganda and ignore news unflattering to Trump, even when it knows what it says is untrue as it did about the outcome of the 2020 election, and knowing that feeding rage feeds its coffers; mainstream, unbiased journalism will be under constant assault and will assume a permanent defensive stance and frequently self-censor regarding Trump; trust in institutions will flatline, while belief in absurdities will soar; demagoguery will flourish while truth-speaking Republican politicians will be vilified and disappear; Facebook has already eliminated fact checkers in submission to Trump and his far right supporters bemoaning how they are being censored, while free speech criticizing Trump will increasingly be professionally and even physically dangerous; right wing social media “influencers” will multiply and spread disinformation on a scale previously unseen; artificial intelligence and deepfakes will metastasize to the point that facts and truth will be buried under a mountain of lies, deception, and “conspiracies”; for those not quite consumed by all of this untruth—what Steve Bannon called “flood[ing] the zone with shit”—they will lose faith that anything is true or be overwhelmed in trying to combat it.
The three main components of a democratic society, as identified by Anne Applebaum, are fair elections, a free press, and a fair, politically unbiased judiciary. All will suffer erosion over the next four years. Of course Trump is not the apocalypse, and some good things will happen. Some waste may be avoided, NATO countries will probably increase their defense spending, some Republicans may balk at the worst of Trump’s offenses, Democrats may flip the House in 2026, and some small percentage of Trump voters may come to see Trump and Trumpism for the vengeful and anti-democratic threats they are. But the trend will be downward, perhaps precipitously. The grand scope of American life will be less free and more coarse, harsh, divisive, and expensive for a majority of Americans. We may, just barely, be fortunate enough to emerge in January 2029 still having some of the building blocks of a Republic. The question, as Franklin warned two and a half centuries ago, is whether over the coming four years we can keep it.
John Rachal's Blog
America in 2028
February 4, 2025 at 12:23 am (Political Commentary)
We have entrusted the nation to a geriatric Nero who grins as the institutions he has set alight burn. I cannot think of a single area of the political, economic, military, national security, religious, educational, judicial, journalistic, or social landscape of American life that will be improved after another Trump term. I believe that every single major aspect of the America we have known, despite its many failures to achieve a more perfect union, will suffer under the presidency of a man who is a cruel, brutish demagogue focused on retribution against his perceived enemies, achieving near dictatorial power, basking in the adoration of his admirers, and enhancing his own personal wealth.
Healthcare? Medicare and Medicaid will be attacked and probably trimmed or even turned over to private entities, while RFK—totally unqualified—will undermine vaccines and medical research and spread his ignorance; meanwhile Trump has already withdrawn from the World Health Organization, calling it a “rip off.”
Education? Higher education is already being threatened as too “woke,” while k-12 will see further right-wing Christian-izing, taxpayer funds will increasingly flow to private schools, and curricula seen as “woke” (learning about slavery, e.g.) will be shunted to the sidelines and book-banning will increase. Research grants will be increasingly subject to Trump’s political correctness while others, including medical research, dry up altogether. Trump has also promised to eliminate an entire cabinet department: Education.
The economy? No. Income inequality will be greater; second-term Trump tax cuts will benefit primarily the wealthy and corporations. Tariffs will provoke counter-tariffs, destabilizing international trade (as they did with the catastrophic Smoot-Hawley bill in 1930). With his 25% tariffs on our friends Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, coupled with planned deportations of immigrants who pick our crops, build our homes, and clean our hotels, the average American family will see inflation rise and higher prices, potentially hitting $2000 per year. Another four trillion will be added to the national debt, approaching $40 trillion—this from the man who promised in 2016 to eliminate the debt after two terms.
Race, ethnicity, and gender issues? Obviously not. Trump’s recent anti-DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) moves, even including blaming a recent collision of a military helicopter and commercial jet resulting in 67 deaths, on DEI, and his press secretary’s defense of that as “common sense” and her allusion to people of a different skin color in that defense make clear the White House view. As for gender-related matters, Trump, Vance, and Musk have all made their misogyny clear (Musk: “A Republic of high status males is best for decision-making”).
The military? With Hesgeth confirmed as Secretary of Defense, and even three Republican senators (Collins, Murkowski, and McConnell) voting against him requiring VP Vance to break a senate 50-50 tie, the military will be weakened while China outpaces the U.S. technologically. Besides Hesgeth’s alcoholic and sexual escapades, he has no managerial experience. His only qualification is being a Trump toady. Trump’s threats to NATO could be effective in pushing all NATO countries to pay at least 2% of their GDP for national defense, but he could endanger NATO itself, and be perfectly willing to abandon a threatened NATO member he doesn’t like. The country will become more authoritarian, and a complacent Republican congress will let it happen. Seeing Trump’s isolationism and his affection for other authoritarians, China will be sorely tempted to take Taiwan, knowing that Trump will do nothing about it. American arms will cease to flow to Ukraine, and Putin, not satisfied to gobble up the 20% of Ukraine he already has, will continue his war until Ukraine is devoured.
International relations? America’s standing in the democratic world will inevitably suffer, as American democracy itself, even the Constitution, will increasingly come under internal attack, as birthright citizenship in the 14th amendment already has. American isolationism will further erode democracy worldwide and tempt China, Russia, and possibly others to further crack down internally and rattle their sabers externally. Trump’s world view that international agreements are a winners and losers game rather than a mutually beneficial outcome will alienate allies and make America less secure, as David Frum has pointed out. Meanwhile the government’s hard turn to authoritarianism will follow the Project 2025 playbook, with Victor Orban’s Hungary as a model.
Law enforcement? A less prosperous economy will increase street crime while white collar crime among the political class will be given free rein. Trump is already purging the FBI of agents, potentially thousands, who had anything to do with investigations of him as well as those who raided Mar-a-Lago in search of documents including top secret ones that he had stolen. The Trump rule will echo that attributed to Peruvian strongman Oscar Benavides: “For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.” If Kash Patel becomes FBI director, whatever is left of the FBI will become the American equivalent of the Spanish Inquisition.
Corruption at the highest levels? No doubt at all—the man who claimed to drain the swamp will bring corruption to levels not seen since the Gilded Age of the 19th century, with his own corruption worse than any previous president. Trump has already illegally fired in his first week seventeen Inspectors General, who investigate government ethics violations, mismanagement, fraud, and corruption in his undisguised plan to eliminate any independent investigation into his business and actions. Elon Musk’s businesses will invite major conflict-of-interest situations, another area IGs investigate. Federal judges such as Aileen Cannon will lean away from the law and toward Trump and his agenda. The corruption will not just be of the rewarding-friends-and-punishing-enemies type. The presidency itself, as it did in Trump’s first term, will become Trump’s personal money-making and power-grabbing machine.
Religion? Fissures in Jefferson’s wall of separation between church and state will widen; Christian nationalism will prosper and insert itself further into government, while divorcing itself completely from the central teachings of Jesus; attacks on Muslims and Jews will increase. A majority of evangelicals and Trump himself will continue to pretend to adhere to Christian values, despite calling Episcopal Bishop Mariann Budde—who implored him at the inaugural prayer service to show compassion and mercy to fearful marginalized groups including gays and immigrants—a “so-called bishop” and demanding her apology for her “inappropriate comments,” as if saying what Jesus would have said was inappropriate and offensive.
Political division? Much worse. We will continue to be, as we already are, a house divided. But finding middle ground will become even more difficult. Republicans cannot even agree whether Russia is friend or foe; likely Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who will be in charge of all American intelligence matters, has defended Putin and coddled former Syrian President and mass murderer Bashar al-Assad. Collegiality in congress, especially the House, will further evaporate, and more votes will strictly follow the party line. Friends and families will continue to divide along lines of those who support the Trumpian strongman vision and those who recognize it for the counterfeit of American values that it is. The nation will move closer and closer to oligarchy and plutocracy.
Truth itself? Trump’s daily lies will continue, and we will be numb to them; Fox News will continue to spew its far right propaganda and ignore news unflattering to Trump, even when it knows what it says is untrue as it did about the outcome of the 2020 election, and knowing that feeding rage feeds its coffers; mainstream, unbiased journalism will be under constant assault and will assume a permanent defensive stance and frequently self-censor regarding Trump; trust in institutions will flatline, while belief in absurdities will soar; demagoguery will flourish while truth-speaking Republican politicians will be vilified and disappear; Facebook has already eliminated fact checkers in submission to Trump and his far right supporters bemoaning how they are being censored, while free speech criticizing Trump will increasingly be professionally and even physically dangerous; right wing social media “influencers” will multiply and spread disinformation on a scale previously unseen; artificial intelligence and deepfakes will metastasize to the point that facts and truth will be buried under a mountain of lies, deception, and “conspiracies”; for those not quite consumed by all of this untruth—what Steve Bannon called “flood[ing] the zone with shit”—they will lose faith that anything is true or be overwhelmed in trying to combat it.
The three main components of a democratic society, as identified by Anne Applebaum, are fair elections, a free press, and a fair, politically unbiased judiciary. All will suffer erosion over the next four years. Of course Trump is not the apocalypse, and some good things will happen. Some waste may be avoided, NATO countries will probably increase their defense spending, some Republicans may balk at the worst of Trump’s offenses, Democrats may flip the House in 2026, and some small percentage of Trump voters may come to see Trump and Trumpism for the vengeful and anti-democratic threats they are. But the trend will be downward, perhaps precipitously. The grand scope of American life will be less free and more coarse, harsh, divisive, and expensive for a majority of Americans. We may, just barely, be fortunate enough to emerge in January 2029 still having some of the building blocks of a Republic. The question, as Franklin warned two and a half centuries ago, is whether over the coming four years we can keep it.
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